Rondo Signs for $55 Million; Did Celtics Overpay?

It's been reported last night and today that the Celtics have signed point guard Rajon Rondo to a five year contract, worth at least $55 million.  He would have been a restricted free agent at the end of the season, and likely the best point guard on the market, but he was comfortable in Boston and wanted to stay.  He likely left some money on the table but was willing to do so for the stability of staying in Boston in a situation he was comfortable in with teammates he felt good to be around and in a city in which he felt appreciated.  To understand why, one needs to know where Rondo came from.


Rondo grew up a star high school basketball player in the hoops hotbed of Louisville Kentucky, with the dream of playing in his hometown at Freedom Hall wearing the red and black of the Louisville Cardinals.  Before his senior year in high school, to improve his college prospects, Rondo moved on to the basketball power prep school, Oak Hill, for a year, in what proved to be critical to his development.  While there he was recruited by both Louisville and archrival Kentucky.  However, late in the recruiting process a snag developed as Louisville coach Rick Pitino, then pursuing Sebastian Telfair, asked Rondo if he would wait until Louisville found out for sure if Telfair was going straight to teh NBA, as everyone expected.  Rondo was not willing to wait, took the request as the slight it was and signed with Kentucky,  The only problem with Kentucky was the deliberate offense run by Kentucky coach Tubby Smith didn't fit Rondo's talents and fortunately for him, he was able to make the NBA jump after only two less than satisfying years at UK.  To finally find a situation in which he is comfortable and appreciated is especially meaningful for Rondo.


Did the Celtics overpay?  His new contract places him in the top 10 of guards in the league but well below the top three or four point guards - the young ones, Chris Paul and Deron Williams and the veterans, Steve Nash, Tony Parker and Chauncey Billups. What distinguishes the guards ahead of Rondo on this list from the Celtic: one thing in particular and that is scoring.  Rondo is not a particular high scoring point guard and his contract may reflect that as his other attributes are traditionally somewhat undervalued when it comes to contract time.  However, as pointed out in the Wages of Wins blog, Rondo actually may be more valuable to his team than all but two other point guards in the league.  Using the Wins Produced statistic that the authors have pioneered in their book and on their blog, Rondo was responsible for 17.2 wins for the Celtics, the most on the team.  He was seventh in the league and only Paul (a startling 28.2 Wins Produced) and Jason Kidd (19.8) were higher among point guards.  Looked at that way, the Celtics got a bargain.