Step into the Wayback machine and return to the summer of 2003, when John Swofford made his midnight raid on the Big East, stealing away with the University of Miami and Virginia Tech and believing that he had solved his football future. Turncoat Boston College came skulking along a few short months later. After a few months of scrambling and hard work by numerous people, especially Big East Commissioner Mike Tranghese, the Big East reformed and was able to keep its seat at the BCS table at least through the 2007 season.
However, the BCS adopted the so-called "Big East" eligibility
rule, which essentially allows the BCS Commissioners to re-examine the eligibility of member conferences for the BCS games after the 2008 and 2009 seasons. The factors to be considered are:
(1) the ranking of the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings each year, (2) the final regular-season rankings of all conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year and (3) the number of teams in the top 25 of the final BCS standings each year.
Initially, this was to be based solely on the BCS ranking of the conference champion but was liberalized in its final application. Applying these principles a year early, however, the conference that would appear to be in trouble is not the Big East but the erstwhile raiding party itself, the ACC. Its champion in the years in question has finished 8th (Va. Tech), 8th (Miami) and at best 13th (Wake Forest). In 2004, it had 3 teams in the top 25, with an average ranking of 12.67; in 2005, it had 5, with an average of 17; and as of the final regular season poll of 2006, it had 3 with an average of 17.67.
By contrast, the supposed of the rule, the Big East, had a champion (or highest ranked team) that finished 10th (Louisville), 11th (West Virginia) and likely no worse than 5th (Louisville). The Big East had 2 teams in 2004, average of 15.5, in 2005, it had 2, with an average of 15,a nd in 2005, it has 3 with an average of 11.67.
Now, those are not that statistically different and you can argue that neither deserve to be booted out. The trend for the Big East is clearly up as evidenced by this season's performance, while the trend for the ACC is clearly done, as evidenced by the same. To add to the trend, as of tonight, the Big East is 4-0 in bowls. In any event, the ACC doesn't have to worry about getting booted out since it got cozy with the Orange Bowl. Unless the Orange Bowl reconsiders its contract when it's up for renewal in 2009, the ACC is saved by the clause requiring that the contracts between the hosting bowls and conferences be honored. So, John Swofford can rest easy that no matter how poorly his football dreams crash around him, his BCS bid appears secure at least through the 2009 season. However, the way his conference teams have been performing lately, the bowl contract renewal season in 2009 should be very interesting indeed.
Labels: ACC, BCS, Big East, bowls, college football, sports